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CHAPTER 21 CONCLUSIONS

Failure

  • The ESTONIA's bow visor locking devices failed due to wave-induced impact loads creating opening moments about the deck hinges.
  • The ESTONIA had experienced sea conditions of equivalent severity to those on the night of the accident only once or twice before on a voyage from Tallinn to Stockholm. The probability of the vessel encountering heavy bow seas in her earlier service had been very small. Thus, the failure occurred in what were most likely the worst wave load conditions she ever encountered.
  • The visor attachments were not designed according to realistic design assumptions, including the design load level, load distribution to the attachments and the failure mode. The attachments were constructed with less strength than the simplistic calculations required. It is believed that this discrepancy was due to lack of sufficiently detailed manufacturing and installation instructions for certain parts of the devices.
  • The bow visor locking devices should have been several times stronger to have a reasonable level of safety for the regular traffic between Tallinn and Stockholm.
  • At the time of the ESTONIA's construction, despite scattered information, the industry's general experience of hydrodynamic loads on large ship structures was limited, and the design procedures for bow doors were not well-established.
  • The classification society design requirements for bow doors became more clearly defined and the design load levels were in general increased after the ESTONIA had been built but, according to established practice, the new rules did not apply to existing vessels.
  • Numerous bow visor incidents occurred prior to the accident on vessels built before and after the ESTONIA for the Finland-Sweden traffic. These included an incident on the DIANA II, a near-sister vessel to the ESTONIA, but the experience did not lead to systematic inspection and requirements for reinforcement of visor attachments on existing vessels.
  • Information on bow visor incidents was not systematically collected, analysed and spread within the shipping industry. Thus masters on board had, in general, very little knowledge of the potential danger of the bow visor closure concept.

Capsize

  • The ESTONIA capsized due to large amounts of water entering the car deck, loss of stability and subsequent flooding of the accommodation decks.
  • The full-width open car deck contributed to the rapid increase in the list. The turn to port - exposing first the open bow and later the listed side to the waves - shortened the time until the first windows and doors broke, which led to progressive flooding and sinking.
  • The design arrangement of bow ramp engaging with visor through the box-like housing had crucial consequen-ces for the development of the accident.
  • Non-compliance with the SOLAS regulations regarding the upper extension of the collision bulkhead, accepted originally by the national administration, may have contributed to the vessel's capsizing.

Action by the crew

  • The initial action by the officers on the bridge indicates that they did not realise that the bow was fully open when the list started to develop.
  • The bridge officers did not reduce speed after receiving two reports of metallic sounds and ordering an investigation of the bow area. A rapid decrease in speed at this time would have significantly increased the chances of survival.
  • The visor could not be seen from the conning position, which the Commission considers a significant contributing factor to the capsize. In all incidents known to the Commission where the visor has opened at sea due to locking device failure, the opening was observed visually from the bridge and the officers of the watch were able quickly to take appropriate action.
  • There are indications that the crew did not use all means to seek or exchange information regarding the occurrence at a stage when it would still have been possible to influence the development of the accident. The bridge crew apparently did not look at the TV monitor which would have shown them that water was entering the car deck; nor did they ask those in the control room from where the ingress was observed, or get information from them.
  • The position sensors for signal lamps showing locked visor were connected to the side locking bolts in such a way that the lamp on the bridge showed locked visor even after the visor had tumbled into the sea. The indirect information on the status of the visor was thus misleading. The signal lamp for locked ramp was most likely not on because one of the locking bolts was not fully extended. There was thus no lamp warning when the visor had forced the ramp partly open and it was resting inside the visor.
  • It is most likely that the crew were unaware of visor incidents involving other vessels, in particular the DIANA II.

Evacuation

  • The rapid increase in the list contributed to the large loss of life.
  • The lifeboat alarm was not given until about five minutes after the list developed, nor was any information given to the passengers over the public address system. By the time the alarm was given, the list made escaping from inside the vessel very difficult. This together with problems in using lifesaving equipment contributed to the tragic outcome.

Rescue operation

  • The alarming of helicopters was late.
  • The helicopters had a key part in the rescue operation by rescuing most of the people who had succeeded in climbing onto liferafts or lifeboats.
  • One rescue man per helicopter was not enough due to the very exhausting rescue work.
  • It is deemed inappropriate for helicopters to carry journalists in critical situations and where they may encroach on the privacy of survivors.
  • The main reasons for the delay in issuing alarms in general were that the distress traffic was conducted separately from MRCC Turku, and that there was only one person on duty at MRCC Turku, at MRCC Helsinki and at Helsinki Radio, respectively.
  • In the Finnish MRCCs the instructions regarding distress traffic were inadequate.
  • The lifesaving equipment of vessels participating in the rescue operation proved unsuitable for rescuing people from the water in the prevailing heavy weather conditions.

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